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Union Budget 2024-25 Review (Download AngelOne Full Report Here: https://online.publuu.com/596595/1337209) Focus on Fiscal Discipline and Capital Expenditure The Union Budget for 2024-25 emphasizes fiscal discipline while maintaining ambitious capital expenditure (capex) targets. The fiscal deficit is projected at 4.9% of GDP, a reduction from the interim budget’s 5.1%. This is aligned with the government’s goal of reducing the fiscal deficit below 4.5% by 2025-26. This decrease is attributed to strong direct tax collections and record dividend transfers from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and public sector undertakings (PSUs). The fiscal deficit for FY24A was 5.6%, lower than the revised estimate of 5.8%. Capital Expenditure The budgetary allocation for capital expenditure for FY25 has been increased by 11.1% to ₹11.11 lakh crore, representing 3.4% of GDP. This significant rise continues a trend of increased capex, which has tripled over the past four years, contributing to economic growth and job creation. The capital expenditure for FY25 marks a 17.1% increase from ₹9.48 lakh crore in FY24A, demonstrating the government’s commitment to infrastructure development alongside fiscal prudence.  Tax Rationalization Changes to the taxation of capital gains aim to rationalize the structure. Short-term capital gains on specified financial assets are now taxed at 20% instead of 15%, and long-term gains on all financial and non-financial assets are taxed at 12.5%. Although this increases the tax burden on listed equities, the government has raised the long-term capital gain exemption from ₹1 lakh to ₹1.25 lakh per annum, offering some relief to smaller investors. Additionally, the Securities Transaction Tax (STT) on the sale of options has been increased from 0.0625% to 0.1%, and on futures from 0.0125% to 0.02%, to curb speculative retail trading activities. Employment Generation, Skilling, and Support for MSMEs and the Middle Class The budget allocates ₹2 lakh crore to benefit 4.1 crore youth through five schemes. An additional ₹1.48 lakh crore is dedicated to education, employment, and skilling initiatives. A new scheme aims to skill 20 lakh people over five years, and internship opportunities for 1 crore employees will be provided in top 500 companies over five years. For MSMEs, a credit guarantee scheme will pool corporate risks in the manufacturing sector. Tax and Non-tax Revenue Collections Direct and indirect tax collections are expected to grow at 12.8% and 8.2%, respectively, in FY25, leading to an overall gross tax revenue growth of 10.8%, reaching ₹38.4 lakh crore. Non-tax revenue is forecasted to grow by 35.8% due to record dividend transfers from RBI and PSUs. The divestment target for FY25 remains at ₹50,000 crore. Key Highlights of the Budget The budget includes significant allocations for infrastructure, such as ₹26,000 crore for highway development and ₹11,500 crore for irrigation projects in Bihar. Other notable measures include the abolition of Angel tax for all investor classes, reduced customs duties on gold, silver, and platinum, and enhanced focus on agriculture and rural development. Changes in Income Tax Regime The government has rationalized income tax slabs under the new tax regime, increasing the standard deduction from ₹50,000 to ₹75,000 and the deduction on family pension from ₹15,000 to ₹25,000. These changes are expected to result in tax savings for salaried employees. Fiscal Indicators and Subsidy Burden The budget reflects realistic tax revenue assumptions with gross tax collections expected to grow by 10.8%. The subsidy burden is set to decrease, with the total subsidy bill for FY25 projected to drop by 2.75% to ₹4.28 lakh crore. The decline in subsidy allocation aligns with the government’s strategy for fiscal consolidation. Sectoral Highlights Key sectoral allocations include enhanced exemptions and incentives for the auto, real estate, chemicals, capital goods, and hospitality sectors. For instance, the automobile PLI scheme allocation has been increased nearly sixfold to ₹3,500 crore for FY25, and significant investments have been earmarked for urban housing development. Conclusion The Union Budget 2024-25 demonstrates a balanced approach to fiscal management, infrastructure development, and economic growth. By maintaining fiscal discipline and enhancing capital expenditure, the government aims to foster sustainable development while addressing key areas such as employment, education, and support for MSMEs.

The Congress may experience a setback as multiple exit polls project a strong victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in three states currently governed by the Congress: Karnataka, Telangana, and Himachal Pradesh. Nearly one billion people were eligible to vote in the seven-phase election that began on April 19 and took place in the intense summer heat across many regions. The Election Commission is scheduled to count the votes on June 4, with results expected the same day. Exit polls, such as those from India Today-Axis My India, Republic TV-Matrize, and Jan Ki Baat, suggest a significant win for the NDA in the 2024 Lok Sabha Elections. These polls indicate that the BJP-led NDA might secure between 350 and 370 Lok Sabha seats, while the Opposition’s INDIA bloc is anticipated to win between 118 and 140 seats. With 543 seats in the Lok Sabha, a minimum of 272 seats is needed to form a majority. A victory for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, aged 73, would make him the second prime minister after Jawaharlal Nehru to win three consecutive terms. Modi’s re-election campaign initially highlighted his accomplishments over the past decade but soon pivoted to attacking the Congress, accusing it of favoritism towards India’s minority Muslims, a claim the Congress denies. The opposition has focused its campaign on affirmative action programs and protecting the constitution from what they describe as Modi’s authoritarian rule, an allegation the BJP refutes. Surveys have indicated that unemployment and inflation are the primary concerns for voters in the predominantly Hindu nation of 1.4 billion people. The exit poll results indicating a decisive victory for the NDA with around 360 seats dispel the election-related anxieties that have been affecting the markets in May. This is a significant boost for the bulls, likely to spark a major market rally on Monday. However, the accuracy of exit polls remains a topic of debate. Historical data has shown that exit polls can sometimes be significantly inaccurate. A notable example is the 2004 Lok Sabha elections, where exit polls predicted a comfortable majority for the NDA, but the actual results were markedly different .

The anticipation surrounding Indian elections often reaches a fever pitch, with exit polls and opinion polls serving as the crystal ball for political pundits and citizens alike. However, their accuracy has been a subject of debate, as the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) aptly describes it as “a mixed bag of successes as well as failures.” Delving into the past, the CSDS analyzed the accuracy of opinion polls from 1998 to 2009, revealing the unpredictable nature of electoral forecasts. With 272 seats needed for a majority in the Lok Sabha, predictions for the BJP-led NDA alliance hover around a third, yet falling short of their ambitious 400+ target. The true litmus test for these projections lies in the upcoming declaration of results on June 4. This year, the seven-phase Lok Sabha polls commenced on April 19, spanning a vast electoral landscape. Distinguishing between exit polls and opinion polls is crucial. While exit polls capture voter sentiment immediately after casting their ballots, opinion polls gauge public opinion prior to voting, encompassing both potential voters and those less likely to participate. As the nation eagerly awaits the verdict, the divergence between projections and reality underscores the complexity of India’s democratic fabric. While polls offer a glimpse into the electorate’s mindset, the ultimate mandate rests in the hands of millions of voters, each with their own aspirations, concerns, and convictions. Come June 4, the electoral spectacle will unveil its verdict, determining the trajectory of India’s political landscape and reaffirming the enduring essence of democracy in the world’s largest electorate.