The Congress may experience a setback as multiple exit polls project a strong victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in three states currently governed by the Congress: Karnataka, Telangana, and Himachal Pradesh.
Nearly one billion people were eligible to vote in the seven-phase election that began on April 19 and took place in the intense summer heat across many regions. The Election Commission is scheduled to count the votes on June 4, with results expected the same day.
Exit polls, such as those from India Today-Axis My India, Republic TV-Matrize, and Jan Ki Baat, suggest a significant win for the NDA in the 2024 Lok Sabha Elections. These polls indicate that the BJP-led NDA might secure between 350 and 370 Lok Sabha seats, while the Opposition’s INDIA bloc is anticipated to win between 118 and 140 seats. With 543 seats in the Lok Sabha, a minimum of 272 seats is needed to form a majority.
A victory for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, aged 73, would make him the second prime minister after Jawaharlal Nehru to win three consecutive terms. Modi’s re-election campaign initially highlighted his accomplishments over the past decade but soon pivoted to attacking the Congress, accusing it of favoritism towards India’s minority Muslims, a claim the Congress denies.
The opposition has focused its campaign on affirmative action programs and protecting the constitution from what they describe as Modi’s authoritarian rule, an allegation the BJP refutes. Surveys have indicated that unemployment and inflation are the primary concerns for voters in the predominantly Hindu nation of 1.4 billion people.
The exit poll results indicating a decisive victory for the NDA with around 360 seats dispel the election-related anxieties that have been affecting the markets in May. This is a significant boost for the bulls, likely to spark a major market rally on Monday.
However, the accuracy of exit polls remains a topic of debate. Historical data has shown that exit polls can sometimes be significantly inaccurate. A notable example is the 2004 Lok Sabha elections, where exit polls predicted a comfortable majority for the NDA, but the actual results were markedly different .
